Greg Cote's Week 1 NFL picks

On the Le Batard Show they love calling me a Dolphins “homer.” This pick will only amplify that. Although to call this an upset pick would be to acknowledge Indy as better. I don’t. Colts haven'’ earned that. No matter. These are two flawed teams. On the high end both could be in the playoff hunt; both could go 6-11, too. That makes this an oddly big game, as the Colts and Fins both must prove they are better than low expectations and rouse less-than-excited fan bases. I see Miami doing that here. Indy has lost every Week 1 game since 2013, the longest such skid in the NFL. Why stop now? Dolphins contrarily are on a 4-1 run on opening day. Nags beat Fins 16-10 last season in Indy but Tua Tagovailoa did not play. When he’s healthy, the Dolphins have plenty of weapons, especially against a defense as mediocre-to-bad as Indy’s. I expect a big rebound year from both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and expect that to start Sunday. Miami has its own flaws, primarily weak cornerback play, but not sure Daniel Jones is QB enough to take full advantage because Fins’ front seven rush won’t give him much time. Miami has weathered some controversy in the buildup to opening day, with a linebackers coach on indefinite leave after a domestic abuse matter, with Hill stripped of his captaincy, and with last year’s 8-9 record putting coach Mike McDaniel’s future on less-than-firm ground. With all that and with very few experts seeing this as a playoff team, Miami needs a reason for hope. And Sunday needs to be it.

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 1 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

RAVENS (0-0) at BILLS (0-0)

Line: BAL by 1 1/2.

Cote’s pick: BAL, 27-24.

TV: 8:20 p.m., NBC.

GOTW committee met for about a minute and half then repaired to the Quill ‘n Swill Pub for shots. Little discussion needed. Two great offenses, two really strong defenses, past two league MVPs in Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, and two top-tier Super Bowl contenders in a rematch of last year’s divsional playoff game won by the Bills, 27-25, in snowy Buffalo. Sunday night, no snow. Buffs have won 10 straight at home but, sometimes, the trend must end. Ravens swamped Bills for 447 yards rushing in two meetings last season, and Derrick Henry should feast again as Jackson gets the better of Allen this time.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

STEELERS (0-0) at JETS (0-0)

Line: PIT by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: NYJ, 23-20.

TV: 1 p.m., CBS.

”AAWWK!” heralds the Upset Bird. “New Yaaawwwk!” These teams’ Aaron Rodgers/Justin Fields offseason QB swap earned this matchup a few stray votes from our Game of the Week panel. Rodgers at age 41 is a Steeler would-be stop-gap hero because he failed to be that for the Jets; Fields is a Jet because the Steelers grew tired of waiting for him to blossom. Each is out to show the ex’s they were wrong. Here, Fields will have that honor. The T.J. Watt-led Pitt defense won’t make it easy for him, but neither will Jets CB Sauce Gardner bottling up new Steelers weapon DK Metcalf make it easy on Rodgers, either. “Youth tops age and Jets win the quarterback swap,” summarizes U-Bird. “Quarterback swaaaawwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 1:

Thursday night pick was @Eagles (-8 1/2) over Cowboys, 27-23: Had Dallas covering.

Chiefs (0-0, -3 1/2) over @Chargers (0-0), 24-20: Rare Friday night NFL game. Even rarer: It’s in Sao Paulo, Brazil, as Roger Goodell’s systematic global takeover plugs on — uncaring of U.S. fans losing home games. “Um bom confronto, pelo menos.” (Portuguese for ‘A good matchup, at least.’) Big question here, of course: Will Taylor Swift be there? Bolts plus 3 1/2 tempts, but K.C. has won 7 straight in series and 10 straight on road, and in Week 1 Andy Reid is 10-2 and Patrick Mahomes 21-2 on TDs/picks.

Buccaneers (0-0, -1 1/2) over @Falcons (0-0), 27-16: NFC South rematch another of eight opening-week division games, and maybe our toughest Week 1 pick. Falcons on a 4-1 run in series, and injury-absence of Tampa LT Tristan Wirfs also a big plus for ATL. Still, trust reborn Baker Mayfield to outscore Michael Penix Jr. in launch of his first year as QB1.

Bengals (0-0, -5 1/2) @Browns (0-0), 24-21: Cleveland had won six straight home games vs. Cincinnati before Gals took the most recent in ‘24, and I like Earthtones to cover getting almost a touchdown here. Especially with notoriously slow-starting Cincy on a 4-8 skid in September. But watch Joe Burrow find a way to win as Joe Flacco finds away to throw a pick or two.

@Patriots (0-0, -2 1/2) over Raiders (0-0), 19-16: New England is generating a bit of a buzz as many see Pats (not Miami) as greatest threat to Bills in AFC East. That presupposes a sophomore jump-not-slump from QB Drake Maye. Let’s see. For now and this opener, Raiders have lost 13 of past 16 on road, and I see Mike Vrabel’s D having the better of Vegas top-pick RB Ashton Jeanty and recycled coach Pete Carroll in their much-anticipated debuts.

Cardinals (0-0, -6 1/2) over @Saints (0-0), 31-13: New Saints coach Kellen Moore decided Spencer Rattler was his best QB option, after Rattler went 0-6 as starter in ‘24. This is one of many reasons N’Awlins is among King Sport’s worst teams. Zona RB James Connor should run for miles against Saints D in one of biggest routs of opening week.

@Commanders (0-0, -6 1/2) over Giants (0-0), 24-20: NYG has dropped six straight division games and got swept by Comms last year (though both were close). The seat under Brian Daboll won’t cool here as that trend continues — but I like Giants to cover. Russell Wilson is a stabilizing force for Biggies’ offense. More than that. Giants’ pass rush is really good and will bother Jayden Daniels.

@Jaguars (0-0, -3 1/2) over Panthers (0-0), 28-23: Gambling and fantasy football were invented so that people outside of these two markets would care about mutt matchups like this one. But wait! Look deeper. Bryce Young finished strong last year and adds rookie WR Tetairoa McMillan to goose Carolina offense. And for Jax, I expect a rebound season from Trevor Lawrence under new coach Liam Coen, and two-way rookie star Travis Hunter adds intrigue.

@Broncos (0-0, -8 1/2) over Titans (0-0), 31-6: The NFL it-counts debut for Titans rookie QB and overall No. 1 draft pick Cam Ward out of Miami ... will not go well. Ouch. Cam does not have a ton of talent around him, and Denver’s defense is really good, like, top-tier good. A tough, tough matchup out the gate for Ward. If QB Bo Nix can build on a very promising rookie year, coach Sean Payton’s Denver squad could be a challenge to the Bills/Ravens/Chiefs cabal atop the AFC.

@Seahawks (0-0, +2 1/2) over 49ers (0-0), 23-18: ”Aawwk!” Alert. Our fourth outright upset of the week (so far) in what is a huge season opener, a statement-type game, in a wide-open NFC West. I’m buying QB Sam Darnold as an upgrade over Geno Smith for Hawks, and I like Kenneth Walker III here vs. what seems faulty Frans run-stopping. Also like Seattle’s defense a lot. Not back to Legion of Boom level, but getting closer.

@Packers (-1 1/2) over Lions (0-0), 28-24: Another Game of the Week candidate, for the division stakes and mainly for Micah Parsons. The defensive star’s recent trade from Dallas to Green Bay quaked the NFL. He might need an epidural for back issues but is expected to play, though perhaps not much. Even if limited, Parsons’ edge rush vs. Lions OT Penei Sewell is a delicious matchup. Detroit has had better of this series past few years, but I like GeeBees at Lambeau here as Detroit and Jared Goff adjust to a new offensive coordinator. (Lions have new defensive chief, too.)

@Rams (0-0, -3 1/2) over Texans (0-0), 20-17: Tougher to get a bead on this matchup because teams haven’t played since 2021, but I like Rams at home but Texans to cover in what I see as a low-scoring game. LAR QB Matthew Stafford is green-lit following back issues but faces a stout Houston secondary, while counterpart C.J. Stroud will be hectored by Jared Verse all day.

@Bears (0-0, +1 1/2) over Vikings (0-0), 24-23: ”Aawwk!” Alert. Yet another upset — our fifth of opening week — to close us out Monday night. Vikes have owned this NFC North duel lately, including five straight wins at The Soldier, but that ends here. Minny QB J.J. McCarthy has a ton to prove on a massive stage in his first NFL start. Caleb Williams fared well against the blitz last season, which he’ll likely see lots of again vs. Brian Flores’ D. Bears’ O-line also has improved.

[Note: Betting lines are courtesy ESPNBet as of Thursday afternoon.]

HOW THE DARTS LANDED

We launched our NFL picks (the “Friday Page”) in the Miami Herald in 1991. Dan Marino was still in his Pro Bowl prime. Dances With Wolves won the Best Picture Oscar. Dwyane Wade by a 9-year-old kid living in Chicago, and Washington would win that season’s Super Bowl back when “Redskins” still seemed OK. Thirty-four years later, welcome back to our longtime readers and welcome aboard to newbies. You know we like to have fun here (”Aawwk!” agrees the Upset Bird) but we take our picks seriously, too. We enjoyed a strong season last year both outright and against the spread and it’s time now to do even better. Hut one, hut two, snap! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was @Eagles (-8 1/2) over Cowboys, 27-23.]

Final 2024: 186-86, .684 overall; 139-128-5, .521 vs. spread.