Sam Farmer's Week 1 NFL picks

Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups and makes his predictions for Week 1 of the NFL season.

Last season, Sam Farmer posted a 188-84 record (.691) over the 272-game NFL regular season.

Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, his record against the spread last season was 142-128-2 (.522). All team records shown below are from last season.

All times are Pacific and TV reflects broadcasts for the Los Angeles area.

COWBOYS (7-10) AT EAGLES (14-3)

Thursday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Philadelphia by 8½. O/U: 47½.

Philadelphia's strength along both lines of scrimmage should give the Eagles an edge, especially against a Cowboys defense missing Micah Parsons after the trade. Dallas should be able to move the ball some, but Philadelphia is sturdier in the trenches.

Pick: Eagles 27, Cowboys 20

CHIEFS (15-2) VS. CHARGERS (11-6)

Friday, 5 p.m.

Line: Kansas City by 3. O/U: 46½.

The neutral-site opener in São Paulo, Brazil, adds some unpredictability, but the Chiefs still get the edge if their left tackle is healthy. Patrick Mahomes has something to prove, and while Justin Herbert and the Chargers usually keep it close, the Chiefs' balance prevails.

Pick: Chiefs 24, Chargers 20

BUCCANEERS (10-7) AT FALCONS (8-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Tampa Bay by 1½. O/U: 47½.

The Buccaneers are missing multiple key starters, including Tristan Wirfs, which hurts their protection. Michael Penix Jr. is intriguing for Atlanta. The Falcons are healthier and at home.

Pick: Falcons 23, Buccaneers 20

BENGALS (9-8) AT BROWNS (3-14)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Cincinnati by 5½. O/U: 47½.

Cincinnati's offense should be dynamic, but its defense has looked shaky. Cleveland's defense is solid and Joe Flacco gives the Browns a chance, especially if they can run it. Still, the Bengals' firepower is the difference.

Pick: Bengals 24, Browns 21

DOLPHINS (8-9) AT COLTS (8-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Indianapolis by 1½. O/U: 46½.

If the Dolphins are healthy, they're the more explosive team. The Colts have improved and Daniel Jones should keep them in it. Expect the Dolphins' weapons to be the difference.

Pick: Dolphins 27, Colts 21

PANTHERS (5-12) AT JAGUARS (4-13)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Jacksonville by 3½. O/U: 46½.

Carolina finished strong last year, but Jacksonville looks more talented overall. Trevor Lawrence gets a fresh start with a new system, and the Jags do enough at home to get the job done.

Pick: Jaguars 24, Panthers 20

RAIDERS (4-13) AT PATRIOTS (4-13)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: New England by 2½. O/U: 43½.

The Raiders' defense is solid, but questions linger about their offense. New England is better overall, and Drake Maye is impressive, but Las Vegas finds just enough to steal one in Pete Carroll's debut.

Pick: Raiders 27, Patriots 17

CARDINALS (8-9) AT SAINTS (5-12)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Arizona by 6½. O/U: 42½.

Arizona's defense is scrappy, which we knew, but the offense could surprise people. This is a team that can get off to a strong start. The Saints don't have enough firepower to keep up.

Pick: Cardinals 28, Saints 17

STEELERS (10-7) AT JETS (5-12)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Pittsburgh by 2½. O/U: 38½.

The Jets' offense still looks disjointed without Aaron Rodgers, while the Steelers should be steady enough to grind out points with Rodgers on their side. It might not be pretty, but the Steelers take it.

Pick: Steelers 20, Jets 13

GIANTS (3-14) AT COMMANDERS (12-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Washington by 5½. O/U: 45½.

The Giants' defensive line could cause problems, but Washington is more balanced and at home. Expect a conservative approach on offense, even with Jayden Daniels at the helm, but the Commanders will do enough to win.

Pick: Commanders 24, Giants 17

TITANS (3-14) AT BRONCOS (10-7)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Denver by 7½. O/U: 42½.

Tennessee rookie QB Cam Ward will have a tough debut against a fierce Denver pass rush. The Broncos look ready to build on last year's defensive identity. Denver will be hard to handle this season.

Pick: Broncos 24, Titans 18

49ERS (6-11) AT SEAHAWKS (10-7)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: San Francisco by 2½. O/U: 43½.

Seattle is a sneaky contender with Sam Darnold, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and a healthy Cooper Kupp now in the mix. The 49ers are strong, but the Seahawks get it done at home in a close one.

Pick: Seahawks 23, 49ers 20

TEXANS (10-7) AT RAMS (10-7)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Rams by 3. O/U: 44½.

Houston's offensive line is vulnerable, and Matthew Stafford's toughness should carry Los Angeles in a slugfest. This is a defensive line that can get to Stafford. But it's the Rams' defensive front that makes the difference in the end.

Pick: Rams 21, Texans 17

LIONS (15-2) AT PACKERS (11-6)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Green Bay by 2½. O/U: 47½.

Detroit looked shaky in the preseason with some coaching turnover and new play-callers. Green Bay, which presumably will be boosted by the Micah Parsons trade, has looked energized and ready to take control of the division early.

Pick: Packers 24, Lions 21

RAVENS (12-5) AT BILLS (13-4)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Buffalo by 1½. O/U: 50½.

This is one of the best matchups of Week 1. Buffalo has added some pieces, and has the defending league MVP in Josh Allen, but Baltimore looks deeper and more complete on both sides of the ball.

Pick: Ravens 27, Bills 23

VIKINGS (14-3) AT BEARS (5-12)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Minnesota by 1½. O/U: 44½.

Minnesota could take a step back with rookie J.J. McCarthy making his debut and Justin Jefferson still working back from a hamstring issue. Caleb Williams gives Chicago a fresh spark, and the Bears get the advantage at home.

Pick: Bears 24, Vikings 20