In blue-collar Ohio seat, Rep. Emilia Sykes braces for a rematch and redistricting

CANTON, Ohio – The crowd that turned out on a recent evening to hear Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes was largely unified in its rejection of the Trump agenda.

But even in front of a friendly audience, Sykes treaded carefully.

“Quite frankly, and quite literally, about half of the people … in this district voted for Donald Trump to be their president, and about half of them, almost down the line, voted for Vice President Harris,’’ Sykes said at the outset of the town hall, held last week at the Plumbers and Pipefitters Local 94 headquarters, three miles south of the Pro Football Hall of Fame. “There’s no way I can be a good member of Congress without taking in all perspectives.”

Kamala Harris carried this purple-hued Northeast Ohio seat by less than a tenth of a percentage point in November, according to calculations by The Downballot – the narrowest presidential margin of any congressional district in the nation. Sykes prevailed over her Republican opponent, former state legislator Kevin Coughlin, by 2 points.

Sykes and Coughlin are bracing for a rematch next year, and the nationally watched contest could determine control of the House.

The 13th District, which includes Akron and Canton as well the suburbs, exurbs and rural areas in between, sits at the convergence of the forces shaping the 2026 midterms: a deeply polarized electorate, the shift of blue-collar voters to the right, the impact of Trump’s sweeping tax and spending law and, most crucially, a Republican-led redistricting drive that could drastically reshape this battleground seat and help the GOP maintain its House majority.

“Republicans right now are desperate to initiate gerrymandering, because they know if they don’t, they will almost assuredly lose control of the House,” said David B. Cohen, a professor of political science at The University of Akron, pointing to historic trends that show the president’s party traditionally losing seats in the midterms.

“The 13th District may very well be carved up into four separate districts by the time (Ohio Republicans) get done with the map-drawing process,’’ Cohen said.

Unlike Texas, California and several other states, however, redistricting in Ohio isn’t a discretionary move: The state is legally required to undertake a mid-decade redrawing of its congressional map because the current lines were approved without bipartisan support.

Under the state constitution, a 60% majority of the legislature, including 50% of Democrats, must approve a redistricting plan by the end of September. If lawmakers can’t reach consensus, map-making authority moves to the Republican-controlled Redistricting Commission. But if a bipartisan map remains elusive, the GOP-led legislature could then draw a partisan map without Democratic support, subject to certain restrictions.

The state’s current House delegation includes 10 Republicans and five Democrats. But Republicans will likely seek to boost their ranks by two or three seats. Sykes and fellow Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, who holds the Toledo-centered 9th District, are widely considered the most vulnerable. (Kaptur’s corner of the state is a far deeper shade of red, but she’s twice managed to ward off GOP challengers in her Trump-won seat.)

A policy focus

In an interview before the town hall, Sykes said she’s running for a third term regardless of where the new lines land.

Republicans “know they have a very unpopular bill,” she said, referring to Trump’s domestic policy law, “and want to steal an election through unearned majorities.”

Both parties are focusing on the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill, with Republicans highlighting its tax-cutting provisions. Vice President JD Vance visited a steel plant in Canton in July to sell the measure and criticize Sykes.

“She fought us every step of the way on the Big, Beautiful Bill. She fought to raise your taxes. She fought to prevent that overtime tax drop. She fought to continue taxes on tips,’’ he said.

Democrats, meanwhile, are racing to undercut the GOP’s messaging by emphasizing other aspects of the measure: cuts to Medicaid and food assistance programs, the elimination of clean energy incentives and the continuation of tax breaks for the wealthy in addition to those that benefit the lower-income workers.

“We can’t be consistently giving the billionaires tax breaks. What about blue-collar individuals?” said Democrat William V. Sherer II, the former president of the Ohio Ironworkers who was elected Canton’s mayor in 2023. “A lot of members from labor did vote for Trump, but not all members of labor and not this member of labor.”

Another town hall attendee, retired architect Jay Lund of North Canton, said he was concerned about “all the climate stuff they’re cutting, the green energy stuff. I read that section, and I was like, ‘Oh my God, they’re taking Biden’s infrastructure bill and they’re gutting it.’’’

One voter asked Sykes how Medicaid cuts would affect elderly people who have depleted their savings and are in need of skilled nursing care.

“Medicaid is the largest payer of long-term care for our older adults, and we are preparing for people who are going to have to receive their parents, their grandparents, back into their homes, because they may be kicked out (of nursing homes),” Sykes said.

National public opinion polls show Trump’s signature law remains unpopular, and the cuts to Medicaid are a chief factor.

But Coughlin expressed confidence that the measure’s approval numbers would tick up in this working-class district as Republicans ramp up their sales pitch.

“It’s huge for hairdressers. It’s huge for landscapers. It’s huge for restaurant owners and anybody else who has a small business,’’ Coughlin said in an interview last week at the Stark County GOP headquarters, where portraits of Ronald Reagan and Trump adorn the walls.

“The Democrats will say, ‘We voted against these things because you’re cutting taxes for billionaires.’ Well, we cut taxes for everybody,” Coughlin said. “I don’t know how many billionaires there are in the district, but there are a hell of a lot more of us, and this bill cuts taxes for every single parent, every single senior citizen and every single person who works in the workforce and owns a small business.”

Like almost every Republican running in the Trump era, Coughlin fully backs the president’s agenda. Yet his approach to politics echoes back to an earlier iteration of GOP leaders.

“I grew up with Ronald Reagan as my president during my formative years,’’ the 55-year-old Coughlin said. “I’m for limited government. … I believe in peace through strength, and understand the role that the United States plays in the world in providing stability and prosperity. … I do not subscribe to the view that you need to make a name for yourself by being a provocative jerk. I’m interested in getting results and being effective.”

In addition to potentially more favorable district lines, Republicans say Coughlin will have more resources this cycle to compete with Sykes: In 2024, her campaign outspent his by a 4-to-1 margin.

A top target

First elected in 2022, Sykes, a onetime minority leader in the Ohio House, is a top National Republican Congressional Committee target, but she’s so far proved resilient to GOP attacks over two election cycles.

The daughter of two former state lawmakers, Sykes “doesn’t portray herself as a hardcore partisan,’’ said Cohen, the University of Akron political scientist. “That’s been one of the secrets to her success. … She really is more of an old-timey Democrat.”

Sykes devoted part of her town hall talking about the influence of money in politics and was joined by Tiffany Muller, president of the Democratic nonprofit End Citizens United. (Sykes was briefly interrupted by a pair of protesters opposed to the war in Gaza; they were asked to leave by a local police officer.)

Ultimately, the views of voters in Ohio’s 13th District, like those in other swing seats around the nation, may be shaped more by their feelings about Trump than the candidates who will be on the ballot in 2026.

“You go outside of the urban areas and you see Trump flags everywhere,’’ said Don Baird, who is 79 and lives in North Canton. “I don’t know what it’s about but I think people just feel like they’re being cheated, and he’s tapped into that.”

That terrain will likely grow more inhospitable to Sykes if state Republicans, as expected, succeed in transforming the district from an evenly divided battleground to one that would have backed Trump more decisively.

“Sykes has proven she can win a competitive district in a challenging environment, but Republicans could make things even more difficult for her with some new lines,’’ CQ Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections said. “Even if the district doesn’t get dramatically worse for her, Sykes will still need a combination of great Democratic turnout and swing voters in order to win again.”

_____

This report is part of Roll Call’s “On the Margins” series, which profiles House districts that will be key to the pursuit of the majority in 2026.

_____