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Los Angeles. While most political news today focuses on the mid-term elections, still a year away, there are three important off-year elections next week which will have a huge political impact: a governor’s race in Virginia; a governor’s race in New Jersey; and an initiative campaign in California.

Technically, Donald Trump is not on the ballot in any one of those states. But he might as well be. Because each of those three contests has become a referendum on the Orange Man: the first chance for voters to say thumbs up or thumbs down on Trump’s second term. And it looks like he will lose all three.

In Virginia, Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger has long held a steady double-digit lead over her Republican opponent. But now, with more federal employees in Northern Virginia fired or furloughed by Trump’s government shutdown than in any other state, she keeps getting stronger and stronger.

Things are tighter in New Jersey, but Democrat Mikie Sherrill continues to lead in the polls, and her opponent has made the rookie mistake of inviting Trump to stump with him in the final days of the campaign – which will only increase Democratic voter turnout.

But nowhere is Trump likely to lose bigger than in California’s Proposition 50 campaign. This ballot initiative is all about Donald Trump. He started it, he supported it and he will most likely be crushed by it.

Once approved by voters on November 4, Prop. 50 will empower the California Legislature to draw new district lines that will reward Democrats with five new seats in Congress – in addition to 43 Democrats now serving in the state’s 52-person congressional delegation. Prop. 50 was launched by Governor Gavin Newsom after President Trump told Texas to redraw their district lines to create seats for five new Republicans.

Strategically, the Prop. 50 campaign is one of the most brilliant in California’s, or America’s, political history. For three reasons. First, because Newsom and California Democrats decided to “fight fire with fire.” If Trump was going to “rig” the mid-term elections by redrawing districts to help elect more Republicans, they’d do the same thing to elect more Democrats. Second, because they made it a national, not just a California issue. Hence the name: “Proposition 50” – meaning, winning this initiative campaign is important for the entire country, all 50 states.

Third, because Newsom persuaded good government groups like Common Cause and the League of Women Voters, which championed taking redistricting away from politicians – and successfully convinced California voters to do so in 2010, to briefly return to “politics as usual” in order to stop Trump from stacking the deck.

With their blessing, Newsom and California Democrats simply out-campaigned, out-smarted, out-maneuvered and out-fundraised the opposition. So much so that California Republicans have all but raised the white flag. In three days in California this week, I could not find one political strategist who believed Prop. 50 would lose. The Sacramento Bee headlined: “Cash-strapped Campaign Against Prop. 50 Goes Out With a Whimper.”

Politico reports that “Protect Voters First,” the biggest funder of the anti-50 campaign has cut its weekly spending from more than $4 million a week to less than $300. “Stop Sacramento’s Power Grab,” another opposition committee spent $155,000 on advertising last week, while Newsom’s “Yes on 50” committee spent $3.8 million. Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy vowed to raise $100 million to defeat Prop. 50. To date, he’s raised only $11 million.

As anti-Prop. 50 funding dried up, public support for Prop. 50 grew steadily. When launched by Newsom in August, barely over 50 percent supported the initiative. This week’s CBS poll shows Prop. 50 winning with 62 percent of voters. And here’s what’s most telling. In that same poll, 75 percent of likely voters say they’re voting for Proposition 50 in order to express their opposition to Donald Trump. Again, he started it – and he’ll pay the political price when Prop. 50 wins and he loses.

In fact, the blame game has already started. That’s the best part. Privately, California Republican leaders are laying the blame at the feet of Donald Trump. The main reason so many GOP donors haven’t sent big checks to help defeat Prop. 50, they contend, is because Trump didn’t ask them to. Instead, he begged them to send checks for the only thing he really cares about: his big new ballroom.

How ironic if, in the end, Trump gets his ballroom – but loses control of Congress.

(Bill Press is host of The BillPressPod, and author of 10 books, including: “From the Left: My Life in the Crossfire.” His email address is: bill@billpress.com. Readers may also follow him on Twitter @billpresspod and on BlueSky @BillPress.bsky.social.)

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