Hundreds of US colleges poised to close in next decade, expert says

Elizabeth Rembert and Amanda Albright, Bloomberg News on Sep 4, 2025

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A dwindling number of prospective students will drive as many as 370 private colleges in the U.S. to shutter or merge with another institution in the next decade, according to a major higher-education consulting firm.

Huron Consulting Group’s prediction is more than triple the total amount of private, nonprofit two- and four-year college closures that the National Center for Education Statistics calculated in the 10 years leading up to 2020.

The shrinking supply of students stems from a falling national birth rate that started in 2007 and hasn’t recovered. The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education estimates that the graduating class of 2041 will be about 13% smaller than the 2025 cohort.

“Essentially the problem is we have too many seats in too many classrooms and not enough prospective students to fill them,” said Peter Stokes, a managing director at Huron. “Over the next decade, we’re going through a very painful but necessary re-balancing in supply and demand.”

Stokes said the firm analyzed more than 10 years of financial and enrollment data from since-closed and merged institutions in making its prediction, analyzing metrics such as net tuition revenue per student, enrollment, ratings, and the asset-to-liability ratio of closed schools.

The projected closures and mergers will impact around 600,000 students and affect about $18 billion in endowment funds, according to Stokes.

“These are schools where we see red flashing lights and warning signs that they’re in significant financial stress,” he said. Huron declined to disclose the names of schools that they expect will close or merge.

Another 430 institutions with over 1.2 million students and $134 billion in endowments face moderate existential threats, according to Huron, which serves over 580 education clients annually, a bulk of which are four-year public and private universities, according to a July earnings presentation.

In contrast, 114 private, nonprofit colleges shuttered from 2010 to 2020, according to National Center for Education Statistics data, and in the decade prior to that period, 59 schools closed.

Colleges across the country have already shut down this year, citing the slowdown of high school graduates. Among them are Northland College in Wisconsin and Limestone University in South Carolina. At least 40 schools have announced plans to close since 2020.

Recent research by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia found that a one-time 15% drop in prospective students, known as the “demographic cliff,” would cause 80 additional colleges to shutter.

Stokes said that schools need to come up with an early game plan to meet enrollment challenges. Colleges can consider diversifying their student populations by growing graduate, professional and part-time programs, for example.

“If you aren’t thinking five years ahead, you’re at a significant disadvantage,” he said. “If you only have three years of runway, your chances of survival are less than 50%. If you call us when you’ve got nine months of cash, you’re dead in the water and it’s too late.”